Demography😍

Demography

Demographic Stages/Phases

• AKA Demographic transition model.

Characteristics:

• Demographic Gift/Dividend/Bonus:
• Higher no. of economically productive population.
• ↓ Dependency ratio.
• D/t ↓BR (Higher BR in previous demographic stage).
• Seen in developed country.
• Max: Stage 3 > 4 of demographic cycle.
• Started to appear in India

• Demographic Trap
• Condition with high birth rate and low death rate
• Leads to rapid population growth

• Demographic Transition
• Gradual shift from high birth & death rates to low birth & death rates

• Carrying Capacity
• Maximum population size an environment can sustain consistently
• Availability of resources like food, water, shelter

Dependency Ratio:

• Total dependent /Total independent =
  No. of persons aged <14 & >65 years / No. of persons aged 15-64 years X 100.

• Note: In India, Total dependency ratio → 48.7
• Youth dependency ratio → 38.5
• Elderly dependency ratio → 10.2

Potential Support Ratio:

• Absolute no. of persons aged 15-64 years per one older person aged >65 yrs.
• [In a house → how many adults for 1 old person]

• Japan: 2-2.5.

• France: 2.5-3.

• India: 9-10.

• Note: In India
• Potential support ratio → 9.9 (2021 est)

Literacy rate

• > 7 years → Read/write or understand any language x 100
  Total population > 7 years

Age Pyramids:

Demographic Liability/burden:

• Higher no of older population.

• Mnemonic: Older people are burden of society

• Stage V of demographic cycle.

• Very low DR.

• Dependency ratio: ↑↑.

Malthusian growth rate :

Annual growth rate and population :

• BR - DR / 10

Population	AGR
Slow growing	<0.5%
Moderate growing	0.5% - 1% (India)
Rapid growing	1-2%
Very rapid growing	>2%

Remember

• 1% = 70 = moderate growth

Fertility Indicators

• General Fertility Rate (GFR)
• No. of children a female bears during her reproductive years.
• Total no. of live births /WRA x 1000.

• WRA & Eligible couple
• Women in Reproductive Age group
• 15 to 49 years >
  15 -45 years

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• No. of children a female bears during her reproductive years taking ASFR into consideration.
• Total no of live births /WRA with ASFR x 1000.
• ASFR: Age Specific Fertility Rate.
• Best indicator for fertility & complete family size.
• Epidemiological planning > operational indicator.
• Target: <2.1.

• Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
• No. of daughters a female will bear during her reproductive years in ASFR.
• Total no of daughters born to a woman /No. of WRA females with ASFR x 1000.

• Net Reproduction Rate (NRR): 
• Best indicator of
• national family planning programme.
• growth of population
• Total no. of daughters born to a women in her lifetime /Total females with ASFR & ASMR [Age Specific Mortality Rate]
• Target: 
• 1 (Replacement level) → Stable population.

• Couple Protection Rate (CPR): 
• Field indicator & operational indicator.
• Contraceptive methods to be provided for eligible couples.
• (Eligible couples: Couples with women in reproductive age).

• For Stable population
• CPR >60%
• TFR <2.1
• NRR = 1

Survey Systems

National sample survey organization (NSSO)

• collects data and publishes large-scale surveys
• aspects including morbidity, family planning, and vital events.

• Now under NSO (National Statistical Office)

Civil/Vital Registration System:

• Birth & death: Register within 21 days.

Sample/Dual Registration System:

• Dual → check both
• birth and death,
• national and state level

• Evaluated every 6 months at national & state/district level.

• Published annually.

• Components evaluated:
• Fertility:
• Crude birth rate (CBR).
• Mortality:
• Crude death rate (CDR).
• Infant mortality rate.
• Maternal mortality ratio.

Census:

• Evaluates population distribution.

• Evaluated every 10 yrs.

• LAST → 2021

National Family Health Survey (NFHS):

• Conducted by MoHFW (Ministry of Health & Family Welfare).

• Evaluated every 5 years.

• Latest NFHS: 
• NFHS-5
• 2019-2020.

• Uses: Family health (NFHS) → 5g (5 yearly) PULSes
1. Prevalence of diseases:
• Anemia
• DM
• HTN
• Malnutrition
2. Utilization rates:
• ANC coverage
• Immunisation coverage
• Contraceptive coverage:
• Unmet needs of contraception.
3. Literacy rates.
4. Sex ratios.
• Male female ratio → every 5 years
• but Total population → every 10 year

Demographic Variables & Statistics

• Demographic Variables:
1. Births & deaths.
2. Migrations:
• Immigration & emigration.
3. Age at marriage.
4. Female literacy.
5. Social mobility:
• Movement across socio-economic classes.

Demographic Statistics Of India:

Population Statistics:

1. Population size.

2. Sex ratio.

3. Dependency ratio.

4. Density.

Vital Statistics:

1. Birth rate

2. Life expectancy at birth

3. Natural/population growth rate

4. Fertility rates

5. Mortality

6. death rate

Important Question:

Assumptions

ㅤ	ㅤ
Crude birth rate	20 (per 1000 population in India)
Expected birth rate	3 (per 1000 population in India)
Village Population	1000
Subcentre	5000
ANC registration	>50% of expected annual pregnancies

In 10,000 population

• Live births (LB) =
• Crude birth rate x Population + Pregnancy wastage
  1000
• Pregnancy wastage = 10% of LB = 20
• Live birth = 200 + pregnancy wastage (20) = 220

• ANC registration:
• >50% of expected annual pregnancies.
• ANC registration ≥ 110

Vaccine doses required =

• Beneficiaries (LB) x Total no. of doses x Vaccine multiplication factor (VMF).
• VMF
• BCG: 2
• MR: 1.3
• Others : 1.1

• BCG vaccine ≥ 400 (2x 200)

• Degree of Freedom (for Chi-square test)
• Formula: (Rows - 1) x (Columns - 1)